Antibiotic-resistant infections could claim the lives of more than 39 million people worldwide over the next 25 years, with another 169 million expected to die of related causes, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal this week.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria, viruses and other types of germs become stronger than the medications used to treat them – creating so-called “superbugs.” As a result, the infections become difficult or impossible to treat, and spread to others.
The study forecasts a nearly 70% surge in deaths due to AMR by 2050, compared to the 2022 level, with older people driving the rise in fatalities. By the middle of the century, the annual death toll due to antimicrobial resistance is expected to reach 1.91 million people compared to 1.14 million recorded in 2021. AMR is expected to be a contributing cause of 8.2 million deaths annually, up from 4.71 million, the study noted.
The findings from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project presents a comprehensive analysis of mortality data and hospital records from 204 countries and territories, to produce mortality estimates over a 30-year period.
The study revealed a “remarkable” decline in AMR fatalities among children under 5 – from 488,000 to 193,000 – between 1990 and 2022, which are set to halve again by the middle of the century. Meanwhile, death tolls in all other age groups are rising, with AMR loss of life among adults above the age of 70 expected to rise 146% by 2050 – from 512,353 to 1.3 million.
The report noted that AMR fatalities in 2021 were lower than in 2019, but suggested that the temporary reduction was due to Covid-related restrictions.
The researchers noted that South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as sub-Saharan Africa will have the highest AMR mortality rates by 2050.