US intelligence agencies have warned that Moscow may directly retaliate against Kiev’s Western backers if they permit Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, the New York Times reported on Thursday.
According to an intelligence assessment cited by the newspaper, analysts believe that even if Ukraine is allowed to use Western-supplied missiles freely, it will not significantly impact the conflict due to their limited numbers. Furthermore, after initial strikes, Russia would likely relocate vital functions out of range, making it harder for Kiev to achieve any military objectives.
Moreover, such a decision would be a high-stakes gamble, as it could lead to “lethal” attacks on US military assets worldwide, the NYT reported.
Russia’s potential responses could range “from stepped-up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe to potentially lethal attacks on US and European military bases,” according to the assessment. US officials reportedly believe that if Moscow decides to retaliate, it will likely do so “covertly” rather than through overt attacks to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.
The US and its allies have provided Ukraine with three types of long-range missile systems: American-made ATACMS, British Storm Shadows, and French SCALP missiles. Kiev has repeatedly used these missiles to target infrastructure and civilian areas in Crimea and other regions that have become part of Russia.
Kiev has called on the US and its allies to lift all restrictions on the use of long-range weapons to strike deeper into Russia. The West cites these limitations to claim that it is not directly involved in the conflict while supplying Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has argued that such a move would directly involve the US and NATO in open war against Moscow, as Kiev relies on receiving target coordinates for precision weapons from the US military. He also previously advised NATO members to be aware of “what they are playing with,” warning that one possible response could involve arming adversaries of the West with long-range precision weapons.
Additionally, under proposed updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine announced Wednesday, Moscow would consider “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, with participation or support from a nuclear state” as a “joint attack,” which could cross the nuclear threshold.
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky presented his so-called “victory plan” to the US this week, hoping to persuade President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Earlier, Britain and France indicated they were prepared to allow Ukraine to freely use their long-range cruise missiles, but only with Washington’s permission first.