Around 27% of Americans believe a civil war is likely to break out after the upcoming US presidential election, according to a recent YouGov poll, with supporters of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris expressing similar concerns.
A significant number of Americans fear the upcoming election could lead to political violence, with 6% stating that a second civil war is “very likely” and 21% saying it is “somewhat likely.” Roughly equal proportions of Trump and Harris supporters thought a civil war was at least somewhat likely, according to the survey conducted between October 18-21 for The Times and the SAY24 project.
Of the 1,266 respondents, 12% said they know someone who might take up arms if they believed Republican candidate Trump were cheated out of victory, while 5% reported knowing someone who would do the same for Democratic rival Harris. Pollsters also asked about gun ownership but found no correlation with perceptions of whether civil war was likely.
The poll highlighted deep divisions within American society, with 84% of voters agreeing that the country is more divided than it was ten years ago.
After US President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris as his party’s nominee, the Democrats initially enjoyed a honeymoon period with voters, reflected in rising poll numbers. However, recent surveys indicate that Trump is leading in most swing states, even if within the margin of error.
Following the 2020 election, a crowd of Trump supporters descended on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent lawmakers from certifying what they believed was Biden’s fraudulent victory. The demonstration quickly devolved into a riot, which Biden and fellow Democrats characterized as an “insurrection.”
Authorities arrested and charged 1,457 participants, most of whom received misdemeanor trespassing charges, although some faced more serious offenses.
Trump, who has survived several assassination attempts in recent months, is facing federal charges for allegedly instigating the riot by urging his supporters to “fight like hell” against the certification of Biden’s victory. Trump’s lawyers maintain that he was well within his rights to make such a statement, noting that he also encouraged his supporters to act “peacefully and patriotically.”