NATO is fully aware that Ukraine is slowly losing its conflict with Russia, with an especially difficult winter predicted to worsen the situation, the influential US publication Foreign Policy has reported.
Amid increasing infrastructure damage and pressure on Kiev’s key resources, Western officials are warning that a victory for Moscow would solidify its influence in Europe, the magazine claims in an article, published on Wednesday.
Foreign Policy sources believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of uncertainty in Washington. Michael Bociurkiw – a lobbyist at NATO’s Atlantic Council adjunct – speaking from Ukraine, stated that the Kremlin sees a leadership “vacuum” during this period and is “testing for soft tissue” in the West.
The strategy has reportedly been effective, he says, as missile strikes across Ukrainian cities have increased the possibility of winter power and heating shortages.
Moscow’s attacks on Ukrainian ports, according to officials, have also hurt Kiev’s logistics.
The report indicates that Ukraine’s losses are reshaping the strategic outlook in the US and Western Europe. It highlights that a Russian victory would be a major setback for Washington and NATO. Western experts argue that Russia retaining its new territories could lead to a strengthened military presence near NATO’s borders, potentially igniting further conflict.
Moscow highlighted Kiev’s aspirations to join NATO as among the main reasons for launching its military operation against Ukraine in February 2022.
Ruth Deyermond, of King’s College London, said a cease-fire would cause the Americans to lose face. “Ukraine losing would look to the rest of the world as if the US was losing to Russia... any scaling back of US support would also look as if the US had been forced to retreat by Russia,” she said.
Political shifts in the US could mean a reassessment of Washington’s aid to Ukraine, Foreign Policy added. Observers warn this may signal a weakened American footprint on the global stage.
Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities in recent months. In April, the Defense Ministry said they were a response to Kiev’s attempts to target Russian oil infrastructure, stressing that the targeted facilities support the Ukrainian defense industry, and that the strikes do not target civilians.