Blinken estimates Ukraine’s chances of regaining ground
Ukraine is unlikely to regain any territory in the foreseeable future, outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has admitted in an interview with the New York Times, published on Saturday.
The statement comes as Russian forces are pushing forward in the Donbass, moving to cut off the key Ukrainian logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Kiev is unlikely to shift the tide of battle and change the situation on the ground soon, Blinken said.
“Where the line is drawn on the map at this point, I don’t think is fundamentally going to change very much,” he stated. Nevertheless, Ukraine's claim to lost territory “will always, always be there.”
And the question is, will they find ways, with the support of others, to regain territory that’s been lost?
An enduring ceasefire would require Ukraine to improve its deterrence, potentially by receiving international security guarantees or by being given “a path to NATO membership,” Blinken said.
The US hasn’t seen an opportunity to diplomatically engage with Russia “in a way that could end the war on just and durable terms,” he claimed.
Ukraine and Russia reached a preliminary agreement following peace negotiations in Istanbul in early 2022. The talks were torpedoed by then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, according to senior Russia and Ukrainian officials, prompting Kiev to withdraw and seek to defeat Russia on the battlefield with Western aid.
Moscow is still willing to consider a long-lasting peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict, provided it is based on the points already agreed upon in Istanbul and the new “realities on the ground,” Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed last month.
There will not be a repeat of the ill-fated 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, which froze the conflict between Kiev and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Moscow has stated. Senior Ukrainian and Western officials have since openly admitted that they never intended to adhere to the agreements, and used the time to arm Ukraine.
In addition, the Kremlin has emphasized that a neutral, non-aligned status for Ukraine – keeping it out of NATO – is one of its key demands for a ceasefire. Moscow's other terms include Kiev’s demilitarization, denazification, and maintaining freedom from nuclear weapons.
