Israel should brace for a potential clash with Türkiye over Ankara's support for various factions in Syria, a major government-backed panel has warned.
On Monday, the Nagel Commission, which was established in August 2024 by the Israeli government to advise on security matters, delivered a wide-ranging report on the Jewish state’s security posture. The group is led by Professor Jacob Nagel, a former head of the National Security Council and former National Security Adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The report highlighted what it sees as Ankara’s ambitions to restore Ottoman-era influence in the Middle East, warning that some Syrian factions are aligned with Türkiye. “The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the commission stated.
The report also recommended a major shift in Israel’s defense strategy, moving from deterrence to a more proactive posture. This would involve reallocating 70% of defense resources toward offensive operations and increasing the 2025 defense budget by nine billion shekels ($2.5 billion), bringing it to 123 billion shekels ($34 billion). The commission emphasized that the country would then need to maintain elevated budgets through 2030.
The fall of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad’s government, which was ousted by a surprise jihadist offensive led by Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) in late 2024, ushered in a thaw in Ankara-Damascus ties, with Turkish officials promising the new Syrian leadership assistance in reconstruction, calling for the removal of crippling international sanctions and eyeing a joint operation against Kurdish militants.
Meanwhile, following Assad’s demise, Israel launched a comprehensive bombing campaign across Syria, targeting its military infrastructure and advanced weaponry and arguing that this would prevent it from falling into the “wrong hands.” The Israeli military also proceeded to occupy more internationally recognized Syrian territory, moving into the UN-established buffer zone between the countries from the Golan Heights.
Relations between Israel and Türkiye, which has been historically supportive of Palestine, have been in a tailspin since the start of the Gaza conflict in October 2023. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Israel of “state terrorism” and “genocide” in the enclave, while Israel has condemned Turkey’s support for Hamas. In November, Erdogan announced that Ankara had completely severed diplomatic ties with Israel.