North Korea could heighten tensions very soon - between April 10 and April 15, political analyst Nile Bowie told RT. Pyongyang says it will not be able to protect its embassies after April 10, while the founder of North Korea's birthday is April 15.
“I think there is a real risk here of seeing some kind of military component, some kind of escalation to this conflict between April 10th and April 15th, so I think the world should certainly be on its toes,” Bowie said.
He added that the North is threatening the US and South Korea
“to show the world that Kim Jong-un’s regime is different than
his father’s and his grandfather’s. It’s more aggressive and less
predictable. I think this is ultimately a dangerous
development.”
RT:Is the announcement to withdraw its workers from
the Kaesong industrial zone a sign North Korea is ready to step
things up even further?
Nile Bowie: Unfortunately so. This site was the last site
for inter-Korean cooperation of any kind, and the North Koreans
earned about 90 million dollars a year from this site in the
impoverished border region in North Korea. A lot of workers relied
on the money so this is ultimately a major negative for the North
Korean people in that region. The South Korean military has pointed
out that on the eastern coast of North Korea, Pyongyang has set up
a missile launch site and over the next few days, I think it’s very
possible that they could back up this huffing and puffing with a
show of force and we should also note that on April 15, it’s the
founder of North Korea’s birthday so usually around this time, they
mark this event with great celebrations and the like. And they have
issued the diplomatic statements to their embassies that they will
no longer be able to protect them after April 10th so I think there
is a real risk here of seeing some kind of military component, some
kind of escalation to this conflict between April 10th and April
15th, so I think the world should certainly be on its toes.
RT:What is Pyongyang trying to achieve by threatening
the US and South Korea?
NB: I think there are several components to this. One
component is building up the tension and continuing these threats
and rhetoric and once it eventually tones down the rhetoric, it
thinks it will be rewarded with economic concessions or food aid.
The other main component is to show the world that Kim Jong-un’s
regime is different than his father’s and his grandfather’s. More
aggressive and less predictable and I think this is ultimately a
dangerous development.
RT:Washington delayed its missile test, but is still
ramping up its military presence in the region …what's it trying to
do?
NB: I don’t really buy that line personally, because it
canceled its intercontinental ballistic missile test – at least I
think it was an ICBM – on the western coast of the US because it
didn’t want to make it seem like it was provoking North Korea, but
if it really had that intention, it wouldn’t have flown B2 nuclear
capable bombers or sent in F22 stealth fighters into North Korea. I
think these moves are ultimately very provocative, do nothing to
improve the situation, they escalate hostilities, and I think
ultimately it creates animosity and allows the Kim Jong-un regime
to consolidate power because it legitimizes their rhetoric that the
US is coaxing nuclear war on the peninsula so I think cool heads
really must prevail on this situation. I think it’s high time that
Russia and China put more pressure on dialogue and bringing the
parties’ concerned to the table because it’s really getting to a
situation where it’s going to be problematic if this
continues.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.