Opposition ultimatums seeking a change of power in Ukraine are polarizing and arbitrary. Right-wing groups are threatening violence without being open to negotiation, sabotaging the efforts of other leaders, geopolitical analyst Eric Draitser told RT.
RT:What do you make of the timing of this
bill to impeach President Viktor Yanukovich, and do you think it
will go ahead?
Eric Draitser: I think the timing of the bill is
very important because we know that the deal that was originally
offered – the deal that was originally accepted by Arseniy
Yatsenyuk and the nominal opposition leaders with regard to early
elections and an overhaul of the constitution – this was
initially accepted, and then it was rejected. And it was rejected
not by Yatsenyuk and the so-called opposition leaders, it was
rejected by the far right – those who actually control events on
the ground, those who have been engaged in some of the most
brutal violence.
In fact they delivered an ultimatum to the so-called opposition
leaders, Yatsenyuk specifically, saying that his gang were
collaborating with what they call murderers – Yanukovich and the
Ukrainian government. And they said they were the ones who then
forced through their own vocalization of anger, forced the
opposition to go back and push through this impeachment
resolution. So I think the timing is important. It demonstrates
that those who posture themselves to be leaders of the opposition
in fact control nothing, and it is those on the ground – the
extremist, the ultra-nationalists, the Right Sector (Pravy
Sektor) and the rest of them, – they’re the ones who are actually
engaged in the real struggle.
RT:Now considering everything that’s
happened there – we’re talking about timing – what do you think
about the timing of President Yanukovich leaving the capital,
because we’re now getting reports that he has left Kiev.
ED: I think it shows the weakness of the
government of Yanukovich. It shows the weakness of their own
position, the fact that they have allowed the situation to be
precipitated in the way that it has. It shows not only their
weakness, but it shows the fact that they have really backed
themselves into a corner. Up to 48 hours ago, the situation was
dramatically different: they controlled the streets, the riot
police and the rest of the forces, they were on the move, on the
offensive. And over the course of the last 48 hours, concession
after concession has been made that allowed the situation to
become such that Yanukovich essentially flees the capital.
Whether it’s being called fleeing the capital or not is somewhat
irrelevant. What we are seeing though is an opportunity that was
lost by the government, and it was gained by the so-called
opposition. Again, I stress, that when we say the opposition,
we’re not talking about those who Victoria Nuland [of the US
State Department] was describing in her infamous phone call
[LINK: https://www.rt.com/news/nuland-phone-chat-ukraine-927/
]. We are talking about those who are actually organized on the
street – organized and violent. These are the ones who are
actually driving events from the perspective of the opposition.
RT:You mentioned the concessions, and it’s
quite interesting here to note how the deal about the concessions
came about. Do you think it’s more of a pressure due to the
western sanctions, or is it more a case of behind the scenes
diplomatic maneuvering?
ED: Well, I think it’s probably both, but the
key to understanding the concessions is knowing that Yanukovich
was desperate to hold onto power and that he was willing to do
whatever it took to maintain that power, even to make concessions
that he understood would tear his own country apart. This is pure
politics on his part, grasping to hold onto his power, but again,
this is, I think, secondary.
What is of primary importance is understanding the nature of the
opposition and how it has evolved. The deadline – the ultimatum
that they have presented of 10am – this is essentially blackmail,
and it is blackmail against both sides in this conflict: against
the opposition, and against the government.
The concessions that were made, in my judgment, are a tremendous
mistake because it is misjudging the character of the opposition,
believing that they were looking for a political solution. It was
Yatsenyuk, and Vitaly Klitschko and the other nominal leaders
that were looking for a political solution. However, Dmitry
Yarush of the Right Sector (Pravy Sektor), Svoboda, and some of
the other parties that are on the ground – they were not looking
for a political solution – they were looking for regime change.
RT:Eric, we’ve heard some of the rioters
say that they will storm the government building if President
Yanukovich does not step down. You have already basically pretty
much said that the official opposition doesn’t really have
control over the people on the streets. So what do you think will
happen if they can’t control the people?
ED: I think that unfortunately it’s pretty clear
that there’s going to be a new upsurge of violence- because of
this 10am deadline. This is an arbitrary deadline. The Right
Sector (Pravy Sektor), and the other groups on the ground,
they’ve already made the decision that they’re going to be
engaging in the violence, because as I mention, their goal is not
constitutional realignment. Their goal is not to move towards
more parliamentary power, their goal is nothing less than regime
change. The only way they’re going to achieve that – it’s not
going to come through negotiation, it’s going to come through
violence on the streets, and that’s what they are looking for.
And the reason it’s so dangerous – is just as you were reporting
earlier – that the police have been withdrawn from the city
center that the show of force that the government did have has
been removed, and this is only inviting continued violence and
the situation is going to be very dangerous.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.