Kiev appears to have reservations about launching a major offensive against Russian defensive positions, the former head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) Rainer Sachs has assessed, based on the events of the past two weeks.
“Ukraine has tried to break through the Russian defense line [in the south of the frontline] in three places. Not using large energetic maneuver units, but rather carefully, with artillery fire,” he told Postimees TV on Tuesday.
“I wouldn’t expect very fast and deep progress from such an attack,” the former senior official predicted.
Sachs believes that Kiev has not deployed its main forces in the counteroffensive, which it launched earlier this month. After failing to reach a breakthrough in the initial push, it has seemingly taken a break and is “trying to thin out the Russian forces” with longer-range attacks and covert operations, he assessed.
The expert said he didn’t expect Kiev to launch an amphibious operation across the Dnieper River, considering Russian air superiority. One of Ukraine's problems is the fact that Russian attack helicopters can strike targets while keeping out of range of Ukrainian air defenses.
Pilots sometimes risk launching missiles from a shorter distance, which improves accuracy, he added, claiming that this can sometimes lead to Russian losses.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Wednesday that there was a “lull” in the hostilities due to heavy losses sustained by the Ukrainian side over the past two weeks. Kiev is regrouping forces and rethinking its strategy now, he suggested.
“[The Ukrainian] potential for offensive action has not been exhausted so far. The opponent has reserves and considers where and how to deploy them,” Putin said.
The president added that Russian troops would nonetheless give Ukraine no chance for turning the tide, and that understanding this was adding to Kiev’s “confusion” and hesitation.