The past week in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen hostilities continue along the front line, with the most active combat taking place in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Kursk Region.
On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry reported seizing control of the DPR village of Grigorovka, located to the north of the town of Chasov Yar. The latter, which is split into two uneven parts by a canal, has seen intense combat over the past few months, with Russian forces seizing control over its eastern part.
On the same day, Russia announced the liberation of Vodyanoye, a small mining town in the DPR located just northeast of the Ukrainian-controlled town of Ugledar. Located on a hill in the open and consisting almost exclusively of high-rise concrete buildings, it had been turned by the Ukrainian military into a major fortress. The capture of Vodyanoye marks an important milestone in the battle for Ugledar, which has been going on for months already, as it further complicates logistics for the Ukrainian troops in the area.
Donbass advance
Russian forces have made major new gains in the west of the DPR, continuing their advance to the northwest of the town of Ocheretino, once a large logistics hub and a major Ukrainian stronghold. The town was a key part of the now-defunct defensive line where Ukraine unsuccessfully tried to halt the Russian advance after the liberation of Avdeevka early this year.
Over the past week, Russian forces continued to expand their zone of control to the west and southwest of the town, liberating several settlements in the area, namely Novgorodovka, Kalinovo, Memrik, Galytsynovka, and Dolinovka. Russian troops have also advanced further towards the city of Pokrovsk (also known as Krasnoarmeysk), the last major settlement under Ukrainian control in the area.
Intense fighting now continues in the towns of Selidovo and Ukrainsk, with roughly half of the latter reportedly now under Russian control. This week, the Russian Defense Military announced the liberation of Krasnogorovka, a large town located some 5km to the southeast of Galytsynovka. The town has seen extensive combat over the past few months.
The remaining Ukrainian forces between Galytsynovka and Krasnogorovka have now effectively ended up in a large pocket, which is unlikely to last long. The area consists of open fields separated by small strips of woods and lacks any large roads. According to multiple Ukrainian media reports, citing military sources, some units stationed in the area have already begun leaving it on their own despite receiving orders to stay at their positions.
Kursk counteroffensive
Moscow has launched a counteroffensive against the Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Region, regaining control of some ten settlements in the west and northwest of the area seized by Kiev since the beginning of the incursion in early August.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the villages of Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vyshnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost, and Desyaty Oktyabr have all been liberated. This is set to significantly complicate things for the Ukrainian invasion force and may jeopardize its logistics, as the majority of the villages are located along one of the two major roads that cross the border seized by Kiev during the attack.
Footage circulating online shows that Russian troops used a large number of armored vehicles during the push. One drone video, for instance, shows a convoy of military vehicles, led by a tank, rushing towards the village of Snagost. While the advancing forces came under fire, they were able to reach the village successfully and engage the Ukrainians, footage shows.
Apparently seeking to thwart the ongoing Russian counteroffensive, Kiev launched new attempts to break through the border at several points further to the west to flank the advancing troops. In particular, Ukrainian forces tried to advance onto the village of Obukhovka, located some 2km from the border. Thus far, however, the attacks have been repelled and the Ukrainian troops have failed to advance into Russian territory.
Multiple drone videos from the scene show Ukrainian troops forcing their way through anti-tank obstacles on the border and trying to advance deeper, but coming under heavy fire in the process. Over the past two days, Kiev’s forces have reportedly lost over a dozen vehicles in the area, including military engineering machines.
According to the latest estimates by the Russian military, Ukraine has lost more than 12,795 soldiers killed and wounded since the beginning of the Kursk incursion in early August. The invasion force has also sustained heavy material damage, losing at least 108 tanks, 44 infantry fighting vehicles, 86 armored personnel carriers, and nearly 700 other armored vehicles. Kiev’s forces have also reportedly lost a sizeable number of high-value assets, including seven US-made HIMARS and five M270 MLRS systems, 25 electronic warfare stations, seven artillery radars, as well as eight anti-aircraft launchers of various types.
Strike drones make a comeback
The ongoing hostilities in Kursk Region have been marked by a rather unexpected return of large strike drones to the battlefield.
Systems such as the Russian Orion and Ukrainian Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAVs saw action early in the conflict but were quickly rendered useless as both sides extensively covered their troops with assorted anti-aircraft and early warning systems. The MALE drones ended up unable to even reach the firing range without getting detected and shot down.
The situation, however, has changed for the Russian large UAVs in Kursk Region, where the Ukrainian invasion force appears to have subpar air defenses. Since launching the incursion, Kiev has lost several anti-aircraft systems that had been deployed to provide cover for its forces.
Over the past week, multiple videos showing Russian MALE drones striking Ukrainian forces in the area emerged online. One of the videos, for instance, purports to show a Forpost-RU UAV striking two Ukrainian T-64BV tanks in the village of Goncharovka, located just to the west of Sudzha. The drone likely hit the tanks with KAB-20 guided bombs, footage suggests.
Footage taken at the scene by the Ukrainian military appears to show the ammo stock of one of its tanks exploding, which completely destroyed the vehicle. While the second tank remained largely intact, it caught fire and likely ended up disabled as well.
Another Ukrainian T-64BV tank has fallen victim to an Orion UAV elsewhere in Kursk Region, another video circulating online suggests. Footage taken by the drone shows the tank maneuvering along a road before attempting to hide in a wooded area.
The vehicle, however, was taken out by a guided projectile fired by the Orion, likely a Kh-BPLA laser-guided missile. The Ukrainian tank sustained a direct hit and was destroyed, footage suggests.
Logistics strikes
The Russian military has continued its aerial campaign to strike Ukraine’s rear and infrastructure, apparently focusing this week on bridges and overpasses in and around Pokrovsk.
Multiple bridges – both road and rail – were targeted over the week in the area. The structures sustained heavy damage and mostly seem to have been rendered completely inoperable, footage circulating online suggests.
A major road overpass connecting Pokrovsk with a town called Mirnograd just to the northeast was hit by an unknown aerial projectile on Tuesday. The bridge snapped, with its sections falling on the rail line underneath, footage from the scene shows.
A small bridge located on the road connecting Pokrovsk to Selidovo has also fallen victim to a Russian strike. It was apparently hit by a Kh-38, an air-launched high-precision missile, which was captured by a surveillance drone.
Another bridge to Pokrovsk sustained heavy damage in an airstrike on Thursday. While the bridge partially collapsed, available footage suggests it might be still usable, as one of its lanes appears to be intact.
Still, the supports of the overpass appear to have been battered by the blast and it remains unclear whether the bridge retains enough structural integrity to withstand heavy vehicles.