Changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine are not a significant shift, but an effort to show the West that it cannot continue using Ukraine as a proxy with impunity, Indian Army veteran Colonel Rohit Dev has said.
Under the proposed updates announced on Wednesday, Moscow would consider “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, with participation or support from a nuclear state” as a “joint attack,” which could cross the nuclear threshold.
While no specific countries have been named, it would appear to apply to Ukraine striking Russian territory with weapons supplied by the US or other NATO countries. According to Colonel Dev, Russia sees conventional Western weapons as an existential threat.
“What’s happening is that while [the West wants] to showcase the war, fight it through proxy, use Ukraine as a proxy state to fight your war with the Russians... It is basically the West fighting the Russians,” the deputy head of the New Delhi-based International Institute of Security and Safety Management told RT in an interview.
Russia is saying here that if you cross the threshold on these lines, we will use the nuclear weapon.
The West should not take this warning lightly, Colonel Dev stated, noting that after repeated hints and attempts to clarify its nuclear policy, Russia has been clear about its right to use nuclear weapons if it perceives an existential threat.
“Some may view it as a deterrent, while others may test Russia’s patience. But I believe the Russians are quite firm about their stance on the use of tactical nuclear weapons,” he remarked.
The analyst noted that Russia has shown patience with the West and has been careful to avoid excessive damage and civilian casualties.
“If Russia were on a binge to strike at will, there would have been much more collateral damage than currently has happened in the country called Ukraine,” he explained.
Colonel Dev suggested that the West should halt the cycle of escalation, or prepare for the possibility of nuclear conflict.
“And if that goes into embroiling a part of the West into a direct conflict, I’m afraid then it’s a war in which all options are open,” he warned.