The Ukrainian ethnos could be extinct in less than two centuries, Olga Bogomolets, a renowned Ukrainian medical expert, warned this week. Extremely low birth rates and high mortality could lead to the nationality’s demise in about 180 years, she said. Bogomolets holds a post-doctoral degree in medicine, as well as the title ‘distinguished physician of Ukraine’.
According to the expert, the nation is facing an “insane, catastrophic” rise in mortality rates combined with a continued decline in the number of newborns.
“If this model persists, without even taking into account the war-associated losses and emigration… With just such a birth rate and mortality, the Ukrainian nation will be reduced to nothing in 180 years,” Bogomolets told the Vechir.Live show, which aired on YouTube.
The country has only six generations’ time to reverse the trend, the health professional warned. Otherwise, “zero [Ukrainians] will remain,” she said, adding that the territory of Ukraine would be inhabited by some other people “who will no longer be Ukrainians.”
The conflict with Moscow has taken a heavy toll. Ukrainian military losses alone have amounted to more than half a million since February 2022, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Around 6.6 million people had fled the country as of July 2024, according to German data aggregator Statista.
The Ukrainian media has reported that the country’s population could have fallen by a whopping 10 million over almost three years of fighting, considering both conflict-linked losses and emigration. A quarter of Ukrainians who fled abroad also have no interest in going back, the news outlets said.
The World Health Organization (WHO) currently estimates Ukraine’s population at just over 37.7 million people as of 2023, down from 44.3 million in 2021 and almost 50 million in 2000. The international body says that number was in steady decline even before the conflict with Russia, and is projected to fall further to less than 32 million by 2050.
In October, Florence Bauer, the Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), described the situation in Ukraine as a “demographic crisis,” explaining that “the birth rate plummeted to one child per woman – the lowest fertility rate in Europe and one of the lowest in the world.” She added that the nation’s population had declined by over 10 million since the start of the 2014 crisis following the Maidan coup in Kiev.