Long-range strikes, drones and new Donbass gains: The past week in the Ukrainian conflict
The past week in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen intensive fighting along the front line, with active hostilities continuing in the southwest of Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), where Moscow liberated multiple locations, as well as in Kursk Region, where the country’s troops continued their effort to push out Ukrainian invasion force.
Last weekend, the Russian Defence Ministry reported regaining control over the village of Novoivanovka, a small settlement located in the northwest of the Ukrainian-controlled pocket in Kursk Region. The development signalled the expansion of the Russian zone of control around one of the key roads running from the village of Korenevo to the town of Sudzha, the largest settlement under Ukrainian control in the area.
According to the latest estimates by the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian invasion force has lost some 42,750 servicemen since early August when the attack on Kursk was launched. The invasion force also sustained heavy material losses, including up to 250 tanks, 189 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), 130 armored personnel carriers (APC), more than 1,300 other armored vehicles and other hardware.
Donbass offensive continues
The Russian military has made new gains in the DPR, continuing their advance to the south of the city of Pokrovsk (also known as Krasnoarmeysk), the largest population center under Ukrainian control in the southwest of the republic.
Over the past week, the Russian military reported making new gains to the south of Kurakhovo, a heavily fortified town stretching along the southern bank of the eponymous reservoir, located some 30 km to the south of Pokrovsk. The liberation of villages of Annovka, Vesely Gay, Yelizavetovka, Trudovoye, Ostrovsky and Uspenovka constituted the elimination of a Ukrainian-held pocket to the south of Kurakhovo, that stretched along the river of Sukhiye Yaly. The area has seen intense combat over the past few weeks, with the situation gradually deteriorating for Kiev’s troops.
Another important milestone achieved this week was the liberation of the village of Stariye Terny, a settlement located on the westernmost tip of the Kurakhovo reservoir. The development further aggravates the situation for the Ukrainian troops stationed in the area, with media reports suggesting the town itself has already largely fallen under Russia’s control.
The Russian military has also expanded its zone of control in the immediate vicinity of Pokrovsk, seizing control of the villages of Novopustynka and Pushkina, located a short way to the south of the city. Moscow’s forces are advancing westward in the area in an apparent effort to encircle the city and cut it off the main logistics routes.
Active hostilities continued in the vicinity of the so-called Vremevka Ledge, a string of villages in the west of the DPR. The area saw active combat during the ultimately disastrous Ukrainian counteroffensive last year, with several settlements in the area seized by Kiev at the time. This week, the Russian military reported the liberation of Novy Komar, a small village located to the north of the two largest settlements of the ledge, Vremevka and Velikaya Novoselka. The capture of Novy Komar means the Ukrainian troops are left with only one major road to supply its force in the area.
Fiber optics drones
The Russian military has continued to expand the use of kamikaze drones guided through fiber optic wire that appeared on the frontline in numbers back in August. The drones debuted in repelling the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Region, spreading to other areas since then.
The drones of the type are immune to any electronic warfare countermeasures or radio interference, as well as able to fly at extremely low altitudes and reliably enter buildings. At the same time, such UAVs appear to be somewhat less versatile and agile than their wireless counterparts, given that they have to carry a large roll of fiber optics cable beside the payload.
A new video said to be shot in the south of the DPR shows a wired drone detecting a Ukrainian M113 APC, concealed in shrubbery. The UAV hits the vehicle in its rear with the transported infantry visible inside through the vehicle’s opened rear ramp.
Another fresh video was taken by a fiber optics drone flying inside a building, appearing to be an agricultural shed with large sacks stashed inside. The drone finds a lone Ukrainian soldier and dives at him. The serviceman was able to fire a few shots at the drone yet apparently ended up killed in the strike.
Footage said to be taken near the border village of Sverdlikovo, Kursk Region, shows the cable-guided drones taking out a German-supplied Marder IFV and a US-made HMMWV armored car. The IFV got hit in open rear ramp with multiple servicemen visible inside. The second drone hit the armored car parked in a wooded strip, capturing the blazing Marder during its approach.
Both drones used in the attack appear to feature custom-made detonators utilising plastic insulation nails. The large flat cap of such nails provides a larger impact zone for the detonator and makes it more reliable, with the trick widely used by both sides of the conflict.
The Russian Defense Ministry also released a fresh video taken in Kursk Region, showcasing the destruction of a US-supplied M1 Abrams tank in a double tap attack of fiber optics drones. The video shows the tank, generously covered with Soviet-era Kontakt-1 reactive armor and anti-drone nettings. The vehicle ends up hit in the rear of its turret and stops, emitting a thick plume of white smoke, footage shows.
The disabled tank was hit by the second drone immediately after the first strike. The operator sent the UAV into one of the tank’s weakest spots - a large gap between the hull and the turret. While it was not immediately clear what happened to the tank’s crew, when the destroyed vehicle was observed by another drone, only its driver hatch was open, suggesting at least one crewmember was able to escape, footage shows.
Lancet drones and new mystery high-precision weaponry
The past week has seen continuing active use of the Lancet-family drones, with multiple new videos surfacing online showing the loitering munitions in action. The drones of the type have seen increasingly intensive use over the course of the conflict, serving as one of the key medium-range tools in Moscow’s arsenal.
A fresh video that surfaced online this week purports to show the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank near the DPR village of Novy Komar. The vehicle was hit by a Lancet drone as its crew apparently attempted to tow away another disabled tank, with its ‘cold’ silhouette barely visible in the thermal video.
Another new Lancet video, said to be taken in Ukraine’s Sumy Region, a short way from the Russian border village of Alekseevka, shows the destruction of a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer. Kiev has received dozens of such systems, that now have become somewhat a rare sight having sustained heavy casualties.
The M109 was detected at an apparently extensively used firing position, with numerous tracks visible on the ground. The howitzer sustained a direct hit, apparently suffering secondary detonation of its ammo stock, footage shows.
This week has been marked by an emergence of a mystery video, presumably showing new high-precision munitions in Russia’s arsenal. The video, reportedly taken near the village of Basovka, Sumy Region, that is located some 7 km to the southeast of Ukrainian-controlled Sverdlikovo in Russia’s Kursk, shows a barrage of unknown projectiles hitting a Ukrainian position, with a tank, a self-propelled howitzer and a house used to accommodate troops sustaining direct hits.
While some analysts attributed the strike to the Lancet-family drones, footage taken by the munitions themselves appears to be inconsistent with videos taken by any known varian of the loitering munition. Moreover, the incoming projectiles are not visible in surveillance drone footage featured in the clip, indicating they are pretty small in size and lack distinctive Lancet-pattern wings. The new munition is presumably a guided artillery shell or, more likely, an anti-tank missile, yet it remains unclear what system exactly, should it be ground- or aerial based, firing them.
Long-range strikes exchange continues
Over the week, the two sides continued the exchange of long range strikes, with the latest attack staged by the Russian military on Friday. The Russian defense ministry said the strike came in retaliation for the Wednesday attack on a chemical plant in Rostov Region, targeted by Western supplied munitions, including six ATACMS ballistic and four air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
The Russian military said it successfully hit several targets in Kiev, including a command point used by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), a military plant and a position of a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft system. Multiple fires were reported across the city, with an office highrise sustaining heavy damage and multiple cars burned down.
Footage circulating online suggests the high-rise was actually hit by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, with a large cloud of pre-made shrapnel visible during the hit and arguably moderate damage sustained by the building.
The Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses are notorious for repeatedly inflicting damage to structures on the ground, with the issue primarily stemming from Kiev’s practice of hiding anti-air systems in densely populated areas to protect them from Russian strikes.
Later on Friday, the Ukrainian military staged an indiscriminate attack on the Russian town of Rylsk, Kursk Region. The town was hit by a barrage of missiles fired by US-supplied HIMARS systems and apparently packed with cluster warheads. At least five civilians got killed and a dozen injured in the attack.
The strike sparked several fires across the town, with multiple buildings damaged and at least 15 cars burned down. The strike affected exclusively civilian areas with no military installations located in the area.
According to recently-appointed interim governor of Kursk, Alexander Khinshtein, the attack damaged seven civic buildings, including schools and university buildings. Several multi-story residential buildings sustained damage as well. The strike also ruptured a pipeline, with some 88 residencies left without heating, the interim governor said.
