The revolution failed to bring democracy to Libya – ex-deputy PM of Libya

SS: Ok, your main idea is to stabilise Libya before holding elections, but how are you going to do that? How can you stabilise Libya? It hasn’t been happening for the past few years... 

MA: That’s true. It’s a very challenging situation because of the militias who took over every part of the country. They are in the east, they are in the west, they are in the south, they are everywhere. And these militias are getting support internally and also from the outside. Clearly the foreign intervention has to stop. To stop supporting these militias they should be interested in the stabilisation of the country because it’s in the best interest of everybody. 

SS: Speaking of militias, the report from Atlantic Council says that there are at least 20 million weapons to the six million inhabitants - a huge number, - that’s despite the UN ban on arms exports to Libya. The conflicting militia groups seem to operate without paying attention to what the Tripoli government thinks. Does the government in Tripoli have any real power on the ground if they can’t control these things? 

MA: I don’t believe thateither of the governments - clearly the government in Tripoli which is the Government of National Accord has no power on the ground or whatsoever to be able to do that. But I think there’s a lot of public pressure today on those militias because people are fed up with them, and also because of what’s been going on in the last couple of weeks. So the government itself doesn’t have much power, it has one power in its hands which is the power of money and wealth. And they have used it over the last three years to protect themselves. Unfortunately, the government submitted its wealth to the militias. That’s the problem. Well, the number of weapons in the country - I mean, who knows, there can be 20 million, there can be more than that. But most of these weapons were inherited from the former regime. Clearly before the regime collapsed they opened all the depos for the military, so, of course, they have them. Plus, there are some countries (even though, as you said, there’s an UN embargo) that still bring weapons in. They come from Egypt, The United Arab Emirates and some other places. And, of course, there’s a very dangerous situation. 

SS: The GNA has announced the formation of the Joint Force that is supposed to establish some kind of order in the city of Tripoli. What are its chances? Why do you think (if you think) it will succeed? 

MA: I think it has a chance of success because if you look at the situation of the last two weeks there’s this brigade that came from outside, which is formally just another militia. But still they have put a lot of pressure on militia inside the city. And those militia inside the city feel that they are under so much pressure, they are being threatened, and, of course, they might be willing to play a role. And this coalition of forces that Mr. Seraj has ordered to form, if they’re serious about doing their job and if they have the power - that’s the thing… And also I think an important thing is the UN mission. It’s playing a much better role than they have done over the last 4-5 years. At least now they are calling things by their names, they are talking about the problems and issues the country is facing and showing far more support from the international community to overcome the challenge that we are facing at this time.   

SS: The Libyan officials are reported to be anticipating American airstrikes in the country - against ISIS targets. Should the US military come back again to Libya, is it a good idea? Do you think that at some point there will have to be another intervention to bring this endless fighting to an end? 

MA: Clearly there are some airstrikes against some Daesh presence in different parts of the country. This has been done regardless of Libyan people wanting it or not. Clearly I don’t want to see another serious intervention in the country. But I want to see a serious political and economic intervention from the powers to be. All those militias have been able to make a lot of money over the years. Their accounts are not in Libya, they are overseas, and they can be used against them. And if those people see a serious commitment from the United States, since you’ve mentioned that, I think, those people will be able to adhere to that pressure, they might be willing to compromise and to come to a solution and to get out from the political arena and people’s lives, and stay in their barracks until the moment they can be dismantled and integrated into bigger society. 

SS: The 2011 revolutionaries, as well as Gaddafi-era politicians, people loyal to General Haftar and tribal leaders have recently launched the Libyan Peace Group initiative in Tunisia. How do you estimate its chances to end the Libyan crisis? 

MA: There are a lot of factions in Libya, and Mr. Haftar to me is one of those who are causing this problem, he exacerbated this problem by his campaign which started in 2014 when he attacked Benghazi. At that time it was a small group of people who they are, they are a terrorist group. This campaign has been going on for four years and hasn’t done any good for the country. I mean, the city is almost dismantled. At the same time there are all these groups who they are. For Libya to overcome the problem that it has today all Libyans have to join in hands together, not to revenge what happened in 2011 or 2014, but to be able to work together for a better future for themselves, for their children, for their grandchildren.

SS: General Haftar, whose Libyan National Army controls the east of the country and doesn’t recognise the government in Tripoli says that Tripoli “must be liberated”. He threatens to move on Tripoli when the time is right. If that is the case, what is the point of all these peace talks, groups and foreign mediations? 

MA: Haftar can claim whatever he wants, I mean, there’s no such thing as General’s National Army. This is his creation. If you go to how many people are really enlisted in the army, there are 130 thousand of them. Haftar doesn’t even have a thousand of those people there. So he can claim whatever he wants. And everybody else… Of course, you see this brigade attacking Tripoli saying they’re another army there. There’s no military solution to the country. Haftar will not be able to go into Tripoli. Those people in brigades around Tripoli will not be able to go to the east, leave alone the south where there’s a war raging between different factions. And people from outside the country who are there. 

SS: Can you see a situation in which the Government of National Accord and General Haftar could reach a working consensus? What should be promised to Haftar so that he would agree to bring his army under control of the government in Tripoli? 

MA: First of all, I don’t think the government in Tripoli can do anything because they don’t control much. Clearly the only thing they have is the international legitimacy. The government in Tripoli doesn’t even have power to control the city, forget the east and the southern part of country. So to say that the problem in Libya is really between Mr. Seraj and Haftar, if they agree and resolve the problem - I wish it was that simple, but it’s not. And, of course, we know that Haftar came out in the last week and claimed that he doesn’t believe in elections, he only believes that the military should rule the country. That’s unacceptable to all Libyan people. So there’s even no starting point. If there’s no agreement to solve this problem the political way nobody can solve this problem because there’s no power in Libya that is powerful enough to take over the country. All of them are small powers, they can fight forever, and they did over the last 4-5 years - they just kept fighting and fighting, and nobody was able to win anything. The only thing we have from all of this is destruction of the country, the killing of young people and the innocent, and the life in Libya became so miserable because of all of that. 

SS: The son of Muammar Gaddafi Saif al-Islam was willing to take part in Libya’s presidential election. Diplomats working on the Libyan peace talks say Saif al-Islam is the symbol of reconciliation for many Libyans. What’s your take - does he have a role to play in the future of Libya? 

MA: Any Libyan has the right - if they’re not convicted in the court of law, if they didn’t commit a crime that’s against the country - to participate in the political system of Libya and run for president. So for Mr. Saif al-Islam, I don’t know exactly where he is (the last time I heard he was in prison in Zintan, I hear that maybe he left), he should come out and tell us where he is if he’s willing to this… So in principle anybody who’s not convicted of any crime in Libya - I don’t think Mr. Saif al-Islam can do that, unfortunately, because when he had all the power during his lifetime he couldn’t do much. As a matter of fact he came out and threatened Libyan people when the revolution started. So I don’t think that he is a reconciliatory figure because of his history and the history of his father. When his father was in power he had all the power to do whatever he wanted. And we haven’t seen much done by him or his father in favour of Libyan people. 

SS: ISIS were expelled from their Libyan stronghold Sirte a year ago, but just recently they’ve claimed the attack on the oil facility near Tripoli. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs says that the group is now more active and organised than a year ago. Should we be worried that the group will use Libya’s disarray to re-emerge and re-establish itself? 

MA: The incident that you’ve mentioned on NOC (National Oil Company) in the last ten days or so is very unfortunate. There are always these individuals who belong to Daesh or somebody else who can attack the country because it’s unstable, and there are a lot of people who can commit a lot of crimes, and among them there are people who are saying they are part of Daesh. I’m not saying there’s no Daesh present, I’m sure there is. But at least they are not the same they were a year or a year and a half ago when they had the whole city of Sirte under their control. They were fought by the Libyan people themselves. They were expelled with the help of the international powers, especially the U.S. And this is the way to do it. We can fight against Daesh because their ideology is not accepted in Libya. It’s completely rejected in Libya because people in Libya are very modest and moderate Muslims. They refuse this type of ideology. But, of course, when there’s instability and conditions like those that we have today than clearly some people will be influenced by this Daesh. And I don’t think Daesh will be there, even in the whole world, in the coming years because nobody will be willing to accept what they are teaching. But you will find people here and there who will be willing because of despair or any other reason to commit such crimes, to commit suicide and to kill innocent people who have nothing to do with them. 

SS: Libya’s oil production has been surprisingly stable despite the armed conflict that is going on - it seems that the militias are willing to fight each other, but whoever is running the oil rigs makes sure they keep pumping no matter what’s happening. If a peaceful solution can be found to pumping oil, why can’t it become a broader political solution?

MA: Pumping oil is in the interests of the international community, it was made very clear that it has to be pumped continuously. And even at the same time the militias need money, and all income for the Libyan people comes from oil. So it’s in their interests that Libya will be able to make money so that they will be able to have more than their share of that. So clearly if you look at that it’s an international interest to see oil continuously being pumped, no matter what’s the pressure on this, and militias understand that there’s something they shouldn’t touch. Even though if some incidents happen here and there, and they would close some oil fields. This tells you that the international community can exert its will on these people. But if they don’t really care what Libyan people live through these militias will continue. 

SS: That’s my next question. So many nations are willing to have their say on the Libya issue (not just the oil pumping part) - Egypt, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, France, Italy, you name it. Are they helping at all? Are they really interested in reconciliation in Libya? 

MA: No, they are not helping. 

SS: What are they doing then? 

MA: They want to support this or that faction. And those factions are fighting each other in proxy wars for those countries. As we know there’s a conflict going on between the countries you’ve mentioned: the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, France, Italy and so on. Unfortunately, those countries are also polarized and they come on different sides of factions that are fighting together. They are only fueling it, they are confusedly supporting them sometimes by their own military that hold one side against the other. 

SS: All actors in the Libyan political standoff are in contact with Russia. Do you think Moscow can play a role in bringing the parties to the negotiating table, the same way it is doing in Syria, for example? 

MA: Definitely Russia, the United States and England, who, when they talk to those people, show that they are interested in two things - the unified Libya and the stable Libya - and are willing to support it. But they cannot support it by supplying weapons, they should stop doing that. And so Russia can play a positive role in helping to stabilise the country. But again, this requires a lot of nations willing to do that, who are interested to see it.  

SS: I remember, Barack Obama once said that the biggest mistake of his presidency was a lack of planning for the aftermath of Gaddafi’s ouster. Norway has just admitted that it had no idea what it was doing when it send planes to bomb Libya. What about now, do you think the West has a clear-cut strategy on Libya today? 

MA: I don’t think that Libya right now is a priority for most of these countries. I don’t think Libya is a priority for the United States, or Russia, or China, and the powers to be. Unfortunately, Libya slipped down from being in priority for these countries. So they have no strategy for it. So that’s why smaller countries play a bigger role in Libya by de-stabilising it, instead of major powers of the world who could play a different role but are disengaged from it. Over the last month or so there’s an indication that the U.S. has maybe tried to engage, but it’s not clear to me that they have a strategy of engagement in Libya. 

SS: So is it fair to say that all these Western countries interfered, bombed Libya and just left? Is it a fair statement? 

MA: No, the fair statement is that these countries came to help Libyan people during the 2011 revolution, and after the revolution success in the sense of toppling the regime, unfortunately, they disengaged and they left because they thought that the Libyan people could do that on their own. We clearly proved that we could not. 

SS: So here’s a painful question probably for you as well, Mr. Abushagur, because you have been a staunch opponent of Gaddafi all your life. You were also Libya’s interim Deputy Prime Minister after Gaddafi was overthrown. But 7 years on, the tribal balance he managed to uphold is gone, the country is in turmoil, there’s a war. Was the overthrow really worth it? Should it have been done in a different way? I mean, with this Norway report that just came in and with other testimonies of people involved it seems that many in the West now regret helping to topple Gaddafi seeing how bad things got after his ouster... 

MA: Personally I think what had been done in 2011 was the right thing to do. But I wish this engagement had continued to help Libyan people overcome this. Of course, now we’re paying for the legacy of Gaddafi. If you look back at the revolution he led 17 thousand criminals and gave them weapons to go to the streets, most of those people are now militias. No, I still believe that the revolution was the right thing to do because we lived for 40 years under an oppressive regime which didn’t value anything in the Libyan life or the human rights of the Libyans; he destroyed the country, he didn’t build anything with all the vast wealth of the country. I know, the things have been bad over the last five-six years or so. But I’m hoping for the future that we overcome all this as Libyans; we will realise all these plots against us - we will have to overcome that. And clearly I hope that we will realise that this is very important - we cherish freedom and clearly we want a democratic state, not an authoritarian state under the dictatorship. 

SS: But if you take today’s results and the situation on the ground today would you call that revolution a success? I understand that the revolution brought down the dictatorship which was not about freedom, transparency, democracy, but you can hardly call what is happening now a democracy either. You yourself were kidnapped by some militia in the broad daylight, it’s not a very democratic thing… In the end, the revolution, some would argue has failed… Do you think it was a success? 

MA: I think, it would probably need more time… Clearly, the revolution was a success in the sense that it brought down the regime. But we, Libyan people, so far have failed to move it from that to a real state. Is there a democracy today? No, there’s no real democracy in the ideal sense, there are few elements of it, and unfortunately even these few elements of democracy contributed negatively. I see that one of the major problems we’ve had over the last few years is by those who we elected, they don’t do anything to serve the people of Libya. So I think, it is a struggle that we are going through as Libyans. I know, it’s very painful for all of us, it’s very painful for our people. But there’s a hope that we will overcome all those challenges, especially if the international community helps us. 

SS: I was going to say thank you for sharing your thoughts on Libyan reality and the reality on the ground. It was great talking to you, good luck with everything. We were talking to Mustafa Abushagur, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Libya discussing the country’s troubled transition 7 years after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.