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Stress in the Strait: ‘Any false move can lead to catastrophe’

Published time: December 31, 2011 04:46
Edited time: December 31, 2011 08:46
Iran, Hormuz: An Iranian Army soldier stands guard on a military speed boat, passing by a submarine during the "Velayat-90" navy exercises in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran on December 28, 2011 (AFP Photo / Ali Mohammadi)
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As the closure of Strait of Hormuz would likely suit the interests neither of the US nor of Iran, the editor of Consortium News, Robert Parry, believes the US is pushing for a large-scale war against Tehran.

There has been a propaganda campaign in the United States, very similar to what he saw before the invasion of Iraq,” he told RT. “The major news organizations have been hyping up threats about Iran. We’ve seen questionable allegations be given a great deal of weight here in the United States.”

With Republican presidential candidates making some aggressive noises and voicing their support for a war with Iran, President Barack Obama is under a great deal of pressure not to be seen as too soft, Parry notes.

During a televised candidates’ debate Newt Gingrich said that the US should seek regime change in Iran and should bomb Iran's facilities to prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.

Parry stresses that this kind of climate can lead to a situation where politicians are not willing to compromise. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side there is also a lot pressure from political and economic problems and strained relations with Israel, he adds, before concluding that in a situation where there are so many “combustible elements” any false move or provocation can lead to catastrophe.”

The research director at the National Iranian American Council Reza Marashi believes it is the long diplomatic impasse between Washington and Tehran that can lead to an escalation of the conflict.

He explained to RT that neither side is looking for war right now. “You have a president in the United States that is up for re-election and you have an Iranian government that is increasingly unpopular at home.”

Closing the Strait of Hormuz for the Iranian government would be the equivalent of cutting off its nose to spite its face,” Marashi added.

The main stumbling block in this situation, he argues, is the fact that Tehran and Washington have not been communicating for more than three decades. “When you don’t have direct channels of communication, it increases the likelihood of miscalculations and misperceptions and increases the likelihood that you can take actions that might not be in accordance even with your own interests.”

As the two countries have “an institutionalized enmity” conflict can spiral out of control as there are no levers to release pressure through diplomatic measures, he concludes.


Comments (38)

Samson (unregistered) 03.01.2012 17:10

Don wrote in #8
Russia, you need to step up here.Do you really want to see another Iraq, Lybia, or Afgahanistan.Another US run client state on your door step. You need to stand up for Iran and their peoples right to live as they see fit.Who will be next ...You? Stupidity of some red-neck Americans are beyond imagination , mentality of foolish politician it isn't better than some of Spymasters, remember innocent Persian Airbus passenger were killed , did the commander apologised or explained the reason for stupidity , this is time that American Should rise up and send the warmongers to the front of battle, then they would realise truth about war , and Russian should honour of selling S300 to the Persian as they have signed the contract and received the payment , there is no longer time to fool the public for Green Band creation to prevent invasion of communism to the Persian Gulf.nevertheless some of Persian Golf Countries behaving like a Rent boys to america and sending battleships like the Pimps protecting their income.There have never been wining in the war , all outcome is the same . this is wake up call to all Humanity .

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art 01.01.2012 21:19

=> Jay://.. the people initiating these wars do not belong to any sovereign nation.. they are not American. They are not Canadian. They are not Isreali. Simply put, they are the owners of international corporations.//
= > Jim Evans:
//Jay ...I agree that the global elite are free of the control of national governments but so are the religious orders and business corporations and financial markets and the media as well.//Yes to both. We need to also understand that even the mega multinational corporations' traditional power configuration has drastically changed. Corporations' "vales" are not based on 'technology platforms', 'patents', 'assets', 'size', 'prestige', etc. anymore. All of their 'worth' has been tactfully reduced to their stock market values. Stock market values are "perceptions" and not real. They can be manipulated externally and huge corporations (if not play the game) destroyed over night. Who can destroy them? The creators of the the perceptions. Our moneys (Dollar and Euro) are not real (only 3% of all moneys in circulation is in the form of bills and the rest digital numbers in computers), but the value perceptions we have been guided to believe they have. Huge international corporations would look like expensive vehicles which can be rendered useless overnight if the high ways and roads are closed on them. High ways and roads are the international banking and trade systems, which have been meticulously created and totally run by the Judaized Khazarians. Once you equip yourself with acumen of identifying them, then you know is running the game.

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art 01.01.2012 20:44

RT: 'Why would Iranians want to shut down the strait and shoot themselves in the foot?'
Iran has never threatened to do that (closing the strait as a proactive/aggressive measure). Iran has threatened IF its oil export becomes impossible as a result of EU/US oil embargo, THEN Iran CAN resort to its other options like shutting down the strait (which is defensive and even narrowly within its legal rights).  Why would NAIC's rep. who most likely reads Persian falls for such a mute question?

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