Since then, Tehran has showed intense interest in S-300 systems and even signed a secret contract for delivery of 5 divisions of S-300s for US$800 million. But despite the fact that the contract has been initialised and Iran expresses its readiness to pay, Moscow has delayed the supply for political reasons as the question of arming Iran with the newest defence systems greatly alarms America’s principle Middle East ally, Israel.

Nerves of nylon, nerves of steel

It’s not just once that the Iranian authorities have jumped the gun and declared that S-300s have already been delivered and deployed, claims always refuted by Russia. The last such instance was on December 22, 2008.

Iran desperately needs the S-300s to protect the almost completed Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is likely to be a high priority target in the event of military conflict with Israel. If S-300 systems are deployed near Bushehr, Israel will be unable to conduct air strikes without response as it did in 1981, when it destroyed a nuclear reactor in Iraq, as well as in 2007, when it took out a supposedly nuclear target in Syria.

At the same time Russian experts doubt whether Israel would dare to conduct an air strike against Iranian nuclear targets.

“Israel does not have a reason for such an assault since Iran does not have and, in the near future, will not have nuclear arms, and the US seems to be looking for a political resolution with Iran, Israel will not do the dirty on Obama’s administration,” says political analyst Aleksandr Pikayev from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations.

Russia does not supply only military products to Iran. The construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr is just another example for this.

“For Russia, Iran is a friendly state. Russia is in constant dialogue with Iran, advising it to comply with its international obligations. Clever people in Washington understand that Russia has vast interests in Iran because it is an ally and strategic friend and neighbour, so it is natural that Russia extends some commercial projects in Iran,” commented military expert Viktor Mizin from the Moscow Institute of International Affairs.

It is true that five S-300 missile systems could secure the skies above Bushehr nuclear power plant, but it looks really doubtful that Moscow will put at risk the opportunity of improving the severely damaged relations with Washington.

This means that this time the Iranian delegation may leave Moscow without any tangible results. However, the political situation is subject to change, which means that the fate of Iranian air defence literally depends on what Barack Obama has to propose to Dmitry Medvedev in April this year.

“There is no doubt that the deadlock of Iran’s nuclear programme will be among the top priorities at these talks and that this question definitely needs re-examination from both the US and Iran to bring positive results,” says Pikaev.

In turn, it is obvious that American leadership is planning to take a diplomatic pause till June when Iran will elect a new president and if it turns out to be someone less irreconcilable like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, then the US will deal directly with the Iranian authorities.