ROAR: Russia concerned by US “surprises” in missile defense
Published: 15 February, 2010, 14:20
Edited: 25 February, 2010, 18:49
Vladimir Kremlev for RT
TAGS: Arms, Military, Russia, ROAR, Politics
Taking decisions on deploying interceptor missiles in Romania and Bulgaria, the US might break the strategic balance, analysts warn.
Bulgaria said it may
join the US anti-missile program
and deploy elements of missile shield on its territory. Sofia and Washington will hold talks on this matter soon. Romania also announced
this month to host the US interceptors on its soil.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on February 14 that Moscow is waiting for the detailed explanations concerning US plans in Eastern Europe. Russia wants to know “why after the Romanian ‘surprise’ there is a Bulgarian ‘surprise’ now,” Lavrov said.
Meanwhile, Poland’s lower house of parliament approved on February 12 an agreement that specifies conditions for the stationing of US soldiers in the country. The document makes it possible to station some 100 US soldiers as part of missile defense shield that include Patriot missiles and Standard Missiles (SM-3).
Bulgaria may deploy Patriot complexes or SM-3s too, observers say. At the same time, there has not been an official confirmation so far, Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said. The new US missile program will include ground-based and sea-based interceptors and other elements deployed in Europe according to the assessment of threats from Iran and the Middle East, US officials said.
Despite the fact that the US says the missile shield is not aimed against Russia, “it seems that Moscow has learned about Americans’ plans concerning Russia’s security, together with the rest of the world, rather than by the bilateral diplomatic channels,” the daily said.
Washington has made it clear that the possible deployment of missiles in Eastern Europe is no more than the realization of the modernized plan announced by US President Barack Obama on September 17 last year, the paper said. Simultaneously, the US then refused to deploy radar and interceptors in the Czech Republic and Poland.
Moscow opposed the US plans, stressing they were aimed against Russia rather than Iran. Deploying elements of missile defense in Bulgaria or Romania is justified if the US “is going to intercept missiles launched in Iran,” believes Col.-Gen. Viktor Yesin, former head of staff of Russian Strategic Missile Forces.
“US missiles, on the one hand, should intercept Iranian missiles, and on the other, they should not be able to devalue Russia’s potential of nuclear deterrence,” Yesin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “If the USA observes these conditions, which the Russian leadership insists on when it comes to the cooperation in the missile defense sphere, then I do not see any threat to Russia,” he said.
“However, if the Americans decide to deploy some other complexes rather than Patriots or Standards, which are not able to threaten Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (IBM) so far, then Moscow should not agree to this,” Yesin said.
SM-3 missiles launched in the Black Sea area will not be able to destroy Russia’s IBMs, Vedomosti daily said, citing an anonymous source in the Defense Ministry. “However, concern arises if other kinds of weapons could be deployed in those countries, which present a greater threat to the strategic balance," the paper said.
The US military already have bases in Romania and Bulgaria that were created some years ago for delivering troops and cargo to Iraq and Afghanistan, the daily added.
Some of these bases in Bulgaria are deployed on former Soviet military facilities, built as part of the Warsaw Pact military strategy, Rossiyskaya Gazeta daily said. “Having escaped from the Communist regime, the Bulgarians pledged that they would never allow foreign servicemen on their territory,” the paper said.
These vows, however, “have been quickly forgotten,” the daily said, adding that now Bulgaria is a NATO member and is one of the closest US allies in South-Eastern Europe.
Russia’s envoy in NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, assumed that the possible deployment of missiles in Bulgaria and Romania “will not bring anything good to Europe,” the paper said, citing his statement on Twitter. “Bulgarians are brothers, but they are sometimes unscrupulous in the political sense,” it quoted Rogozin as saying.
Bulgaria wants to participate in the process of strengthening regional security, but after the analogous proposal to the Romanian leadership, Sofia was afraid to remain beyond the US missile defense plans, said Evgenia Voyko of the Center for Political Conjuncture.
For the new Bulgarian leadership, the participation in the missile defense program “would be a possibility to strengthen its positions in the Balkans and Eastern Europe,” she said. The country’s government has already set a course to become closer to NATO’s structures and overhauling energy projects with Russia, she said.
“Possible talks between Sofia and Washington about Bulgaria’s joining missile defense is a natural consequence of the new foreign policy course of Bulgaria after the change of the ruling elites,” Voyko said. The participation in the US missile program may also increase the status of Bulgaria and other East European countries, the analyst added.
As for the US’s plans, Washington’s strategy “remains unchanged,” said Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. Washington needs missiles in Romania to “neutralize Russia as a geopolitical competitor,” Ivashov told Ekho Moskvy radio.
The explanations that the missiles in Romania are necessary to avert the Iranian threat are false, because “Iran will never be first to deliver a military strike,” Ivashov said.
However Aleksandr Konovalov, president of the Institute for Strategic Assessment, believes that US missiles do not present a threat to Russia, taking into account their characteristics. Sea-based missiles can be deployed in the region first, Konovalov told Ekho Moskvy. Analogous ground-based missiles will be built only in 2015, he added.
The deployment of the missiles in Romania answers the new Washington strategy, about which the US president has spoken earlier, Konovalov believes.
The missile defense elements in Romania do not present a threat to Russia’s nuclear deterrence potential, agrees Maj.-Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, a senior researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations.
However, the participation of East European states in American missile defense plans creates a “negative attitude against a general background of the cooperation between Russia and the West in solving security problems,” Dvorkin told Moskovsky Komsomolets daily.
Russia keeps insisting that US missile defense plans “should be considered in the context of strategic weapons and discussed with Russia first of all,” Dmitry Danilov, head of the Department for European Security Studies at Institute of Europe told the daily.
However, the situation “has not changed in principle,” Danilov said, and decisions on missile defense are being taken “without Russia’s active participation.”
Sergey Borisov, RT
13.02.2010, 12:09
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I think the thing that really hurts the east european failures the most, is that Russia is one of the key players in the world, and is set to become more so. We have the resources of oil,gas,food and water. Indeed we are the mass with inherent value to form around. Russia has downsized and ejected its non profitable parts, that had no inherent worth. Now Russia is back to its core business, to grow stronger and stronger. This is what really hurts the east Europeans. They sit as marginal candidates, the poor ones of Europe, they sit around the old Europe - the Germans, the French, the Italians, the Spanish ...., who never accept the east eurpean rejects, that bring little to europe and take alot. No the reality is that old Europe, knows the value of forming around Russia, and is doing it, look at the train deals, the ship deals, the space deals, the energy deals.... Old Europe knows it needs customers for its technology and access to things it doesn't have, like hydrocarbons and reliable space boosters. It knows that Russia is a key player. That is why it ignores the incessant moaning and whinging of the east european scrounger economies, the ones who want to fight, and dont want to work. Old Europe knows the way the world needs to work, and is certainly not going to let a bunch of beligerent east europeans stop them achieving and maintaing a better lifestyle. Old europe lives Go Russia, the east europeans live Stalin, so are over 50 years behind. The blunt reality is that the world is moving on, the east europeans will just be left with their chips on their shoulders, standing in fields with their missiles, showing the same lack of military knowledge and politics that they have always had. Russia will provide resources and products to diverse countries and economies. The smart countries are making sure they have a relationship that works with us. The dumb ones are fighting, while behind them smart ones ae reaching past them.
@Cash You`re right - there are millions of Poles that want to come to the russian paradise - we should hang tourism right now :). You should also stop selling us Your gas and oil - because You are selling it so cheaply that we dont see the reason to buy from anyone else or mine our own :). Russia should ask Germany to put sanctions on Poland ASAP :). You talk about reality but here it is - Russia is not a key player anymore. Your empire failed and left with leftovers like Belarus and Moldova - get over with it. You can order those two what to do and what You want - everyone else just doesnt care. Even small Baltics didnt care about Mother Russia`s opinion when they entered NATO and EU, they have now better living standards than Russia and that`s a fact. Take care better of Your economy, and hid Your threats You can`t realize for better times.












Count Cash. Your analyse is good but you forgot one major factor. Back, in 1970, when living in Seattle, I rode that comment from a notorious New-York Time political journalist: Europe will be Americanised or will never be. Consequently, the USA have kept a huge military presence all over the continent; they install ABM missiles in many countries and have corrupted so many decisions' makers (not only in former East-bloc countries but most of all, in Brussels). Unless, Europeans assume their sovereignty and have all that American interference removed, Russia will still have a long time to worry...Sorry Future European and Russian Generations ! Sincerely. Jean-Claude Meslin